Medium confidence (69/100)

Derby come in on a run of D, scoring 2.00 and conceding 2.00 goals per game on average. Swansea are on D, averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Feeding both sides' scoring rates into our Poisson model projects a 93% probability for "Over 1.5 Goals". Overall confidence: 69/100.